Regardless of the probable hesitation from Prague, I would still hedge a bet that by the time of the next British general election (due in May 2010), all 27 member-states of the European Union would have ratified Lisbon and this would be a very good thing. Why? Because, of one certain pledge that the next Prime Minister of this country (and who I will be voting for) has given; if Lisbon has not been fully ratified by all member-states by the time the Conservative Party enters office, there will be a British referendum on the Treaty.
This would the worst political error David Cameron could possibly make. Forcing a referendum following full ratification would bring chaos to the European Union (as the British would vote 'no'), would cause an enormous and bitter feud with our partners in Paris, Berlin and other European capitals, make Britain the pariah state of the Union and quite likely
cause a diplomatic row with the Obama Administration, which, like previous US administrations, would love to see the emergence of a cohesive, strong and unified European Union that would be a vital ally in an emerging multipolar world. There also exists the very real possibility that such a foolish move would re-create the bitter division of the Conservative Party over Europe that tore it apart during John Major's premiership. In essence, the Conservative Government that I - and the majority of British voters - hope to see propelled into office in May would be a lame duck before it even gets started.
However, one may argue that I'm being too gloomy - if Lisbon is fully ratified before the election, then we have nothing to worry about. Cameron's pledge was IF the treaty hadn't been fully ratified, then he would deliver the promised referendum. Oh no, my friend... what gravely worries me is Cameron's vague declaration that even if full ratification had taken place, a Conservative Government "would not let matters rest there". So even if a referendum does not happen in Britain, it is very likely that Britain under Cameron will kick up a hissy-fit anyway in Brussels concerning the Treaty and cause the same negative reactions predicted above regardless.
Now, I often wonder just how Eurosceptic Cameron actually is and my instinct is that secretly, he is either indifferent to Brussels or tentatively pro-European. Obviously, he cannot reveal this, as his entire progressive, 'caring' brand of conservatism does ultimately rest on the support of the (anti-EU) Party Old Guard. Also, the Shadow Foreign Secretary, William Hague is infamous for his Euro-scepticism and as a former party leader (who equally infamously lost the 2001 election with his simplistic, populist slogan "Save the Pound") has much influence within the Party. One truly hopes that following the election, Cameron will feel secure in his authority to be able to show his true colours and opinions and unshackle himself from the chains of the Old Guard... or risk a bitter and damaging feud within the Party which Labour would be able to instantly pounce on.
Thus, if full ratification of Lisbon has occurred by the time the Conservatives enter government, I pray and implore Cameron to let matters lie, at the risk of completely isolating Britain within the EU and potentially causing a devastating split within the Party before we've even got started on repairing and reforming Britain. Remember, the UK is still in recession, the budget deficit needs to be tamed, millions are unemployed and there are grave social problems that still need to be addressed - these are the real issues and these are what we should be fully concentrating on.
Today, David Cameron must be watching the referendum results in Ireland with great anxiety - but it doesn't need to cause him anxiety. The matter is all but closed. Being a strong leader is not just about ramming home your principles and values at all costs - it's about knowing your limitations as well. And with this, I must re-emphasise - LET MATTERS LIE.
No comments:
Post a Comment